Recent findings unveiled at the ESCMID Global Congress in Barcelona, Spain shed light on the perceptions of infectious diseases experts regarding the potential for pandemics posed by various pathogens. Conducted by the VACCELERATE Consortium, the study asked experts to rank pathogens according to their pandemic risk. Notably, influenza emerged as the top concern, with 57% of experts ranking it as the pathogen with the highest pandemic potential, while an additional 17% placed it second.
Dr. Jon Salmanton-García from the University of Cologne, along with colleagues from across Europe, spearheaded the research, which was published in Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease. Alongside influenza, Disease X (representing an unknown disease) garnered significant attention, with 21% of respondents ranking it first and 14% ranking it second. SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, ranked third, receiving 8% of first-place votes and 16% of second-place votes.
The study, which engaged infectious disease experts globally, aimed to align with the World Health Organization’s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics. Participants evaluated various pathogens based on factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and potential for evolution.
A total of 187 responses were collected from experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy contributing the highest number of replies. In addition to influenza, other pathogens of concern included SARS-CoV, Ebola virus, and Disease X. Conversely, viruses like Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, henipavirus, and Rift Valley fever virus were deemed to have lower pandemic potential.
Dr. Salmanton-García highlighted the recurrent threat posed by influenza, stating that seasonal outbreaks essentially constitute small-scale pandemics, albeit usually controlled due to relatively low virulence. However, he cautioned that the landscape could change if a more virulent strain emerges. He also noted that lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic have enhanced global preparedness for respiratory virus outbreaks, emphasizing measures such as social distancing, hand hygiene, mask-wearing, vaccination, and bolstered healthcare infrastructure.
In conclusion, the study underscores the ongoing vigilance required to monitor and combat infectious diseases with pandemic potential. Through collaborative efforts and enhanced preparedness, the global community aims to mitigate the impact of future outbreaks.
- : public
